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Poll puts Tories on lowest seat total in history

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How is the Conservative campaign going? Well, according to the latest YouGov poll, things are looking worse for Rishi Sunak and his party than when he called the election. The latest MRP poll from the pollster suggests that were an election held now, the Labour party would return 425 MPs, the Conservatives would come in second on 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats in third on 67 MPs.

What will make this particularly uncomfortable is that the figures are less favourable to the Tories than their poll two weeks ago – they are down 32 MPs from the last poll. Meanwhile, Labour are up two from that poll. The big winner, however, appears to be the Liberal Democrats who are now predicted to win a whopping 67 seats (including Michael Gove’s old seat of Surrey Heath), a significant improvement.

Yet the party that is having the biggest impact in terms of reducing the Tories chances appears to be the Reform party, predicted to win 15 per cent of the vote but electing just five MPs. The return of Nigel Farage has had a devastating effect on the Tory vote.

The Conservative campaign has not been helped by the D-Day debacle and a number of gaffes. Given the party is now in the second half of the campaign, it’s hard to see much changing between now and 4 July. Instead, the best hope for the Conservatives is that some voters are turned off the idea of a Labour supermajority.

Now Sunak will say that the only poll that matters is the one on 4 July. But it is worth pointing out that this is one of three MRP polls today – and they all suggest the Tories are on course for a historic defeat. Even ministers have started to say this out loud, with David TC Davies today telling the Sun’s Never Mind the Ballots: ‘I don’t know how large that will be, but I’m not stupid either. You cannot dismiss every single opinion poll.’ He goes on to say that ‘if the polls are even half right’ then ‘Keir Starmer will walk into Downing Street’. It means the rest of the campaign is likely to see the Tories warning of the dangers of Starmer having a big win rather than suggesting Sunak has any chance of mounting a surprise victory.